BlackBerry is still limping along but, following the departure of another key executive, one analyst on Tuesday predicted that next year will be the end of the road for the Canadian smartphone maker.
BlackBerry users will decline to 31 million globally by the end of this year, down from 65 million at the end of 2013, Radio Free Mobile predicts.
"On the current trajectory, Radio Free Mobile expects device shipments to hit zero in 2015 and for the last user to leave the ecosystem in the same time frame," said company founder Richard Windsor, in a statement.
Windsor's latest appraisal of BlackBerry's position comes after the vendor confirmed to various news outlets that Andrew Bocking, head of its BBM secure messaging unit, is leaving the company. Unlike previous big name executives, Bocking is apparently going of his own accord.
BlackBerry doesn't plan to replace him, but will instead integrate BBM into its Global Enterprise Solutions business, run by John Sims, a move Windsor described as being "as good as a death sentence".
The analyst's calculations give BlackBerry an enterprise value of $2.3 billion, or around half its current share price. Windsor's numbers include a patent portfolio valued at $1 billion, but he has placed a negative $1.5 billion value on its devices business.
"Investors have benefitted from optimism surrounding a John Chen-led recovery but with this much downside, it is time to head for the exit," Windsor concluded.